How Much Does a CS2 Knife Really Cost? 50th, 90th and 99th Percentile
Published · case prices as of · Steam Community Market · methodology
Every CS2 weapon case gives a knife or gloves with a probability of 0.26% per opening, the rate Valve disclosed in 2017. That is "1 in 385" on average, but the average hides the spread. Half of players get their first knife within 267 openings. One player in ten needs 885 openings or more, and one in a hundred needs 1,769 or more. Even on the cheapest case to open, the Kilowatt Case at $2.74 with the key, that unlucky player in ten spends $2,425 or more before seeing gold, at prices of September 30, 2026.
Key figures
- Chance of a knife or gloves per weapon case opening: 0.26% (Valve, 2017).
- Average number of openings before the first knife: 384.6 ($2.49 key included in every opening).
- 50th percentile (median): 267 openings. 90th percentile: 885. 99th percentile: 1,769.
- Chance of no knife after 1,000 openings: 7.4%, about 1 player in 14.
- At the 90th percentile, the cost ranges from $2,425 (Kilowatt Case) to $159,096 (CS:GO Weapon Case) across 42 weapon cases.
Bad luck: no knife after N openings
Each opening is independent: a long dry run does not make the next knife more likely. The chance of having nothing after N openings is simply (1 − 0.0026)N.
| Openings | Chance of no knife yet | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 77.1% | 1 in 1 |
| 250 | 52.2% | 1 in 2 |
| 500 | 27.2% | 1 in 4 |
| 1,000 | 7.4% | 1 in 14 |
| 1,500 | 2.0% | 1 in 50 |
| 2,000 | 0.55% | 1 in 183 |
Cost before the first knife, case by case
The number of openings is the same for every weapon case; only the price of one opening changes. The table multiplies it by the case price plus a $2.49 key, cheapest case first.
| Case | Per opening | Average | 50th pct (267) | 90th pct (885) | 99th pct (1,769) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilowatt Case | $2.74 | $1,054 | $732 | $2,425 | $4,847 |
| Revolution Case | $2.88 | $1,108 | $769 | $2,549 | $5,095 |
| Recoil Case | $2.98 | $1,146 | $796 | $2,637 | $5,272 |
| Snakebite Case | $3.21 | $1,235 | $857 | $2,841 | $5,678 |
| Fracture Case | $3.27 | $1,258 | $873 | $2,894 | $5,785 |
| Fever Case | $3.38 | $1,300 | $902 | $2,991 | $5,979 |
| Clutch Case | $3.48 | $1,338 | $929 | $3,080 | $6,156 |
| Gallery Case | $3.74 | $1,438 | $999 | $3,310 | $6,616 |
| CS20 Case | $4.13 | $1,588 | $1,103 | $3,655 | $7,306 |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $4.34 | $1,669 | $1,159 | $3,841 | $7,677 |
| Danger Zone Case | $4.46 | $1,715 | $1,191 | $3,947 | $7,890 |
| Prisma 2 Case | $4.56 | $1,754 | $1,218 | $4,036 | $8,067 |
| Prisma Case | $4.68 | $1,800 | $1,250 | $4,142 | $8,279 |
| Falchion Case | $4.94 | $1,900 | $1,319 | $4,372 | $8,739 |
| Horizon Case | $5.06 | $1,946 | $1,351 | $4,478 | $8,951 |
| Shadow Case | $5.07 | $1,950 | $1,354 | $4,487 | $8,969 |
| Revolver Case | $6.62 | $2,546 | $1,768 | $5,859 | $11,711 |
| Spectrum 2 Case | $6.77 | $2,604 | $1,808 | $5,991 | $11,976 |
| Gamma 2 Case | $7.02 | $2,700 | $1,874 | $6,213 | $12,418 |
| Gamma Case | $7.15 | $2,750 | $1,909 | $6,328 | $12,648 |
| Chroma 3 Case | $7.41 | $2,850 | $1,978 | $6,558 | $13,108 |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $7.58 | $2,915 | $2,024 | $6,708 | $13,409 |
| Spectrum Case | $8.00 | $3,077 | $2,136 | $7,080 | $14,152 |
| Chroma 2 Case | $8.03 | $3,088 | $2,144 | $7,107 | $14,205 |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $8.22 | $3,162 | $2,195 | $7,275 | $14,541 |
| Chroma Case | $9.58 | $3,685 | $2,558 | $8,478 | $16,947 |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $10.39 | $3,996 | $2,774 | $9,195 | $18,380 |
| Shattered Web Case | $10.47 | $4,027 | $2,795 | $9,266 | $18,521 |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | $12.15 | $4,673 | $3,244 | $10,753 | $21,493 |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $14.17 | $5,450 | $3,783 | $12,540 | $25,067 |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | $14.89 | $5,727 | $3,976 | $13,178 | $26,340 |
| Operation Riptide Case | $16.64 | $6,400 | $4,443 | $14,726 | $29,436 |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $17.39 | $6,688 | $4,643 | $15,390 | $30,763 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $20.95 | $8,058 | $5,594 | $18,541 | $37,061 |
| Glove Case | $21.89 | $8,419 | $5,845 | $19,373 | $38,723 |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | $22.58 | $8,685 | $6,029 | $19,983 | $39,944 |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $28.34 | $10,900 | $7,567 | $25,081 | $50,133 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $37.65 | $14,481 | $10,053 | $33,320 | $66,603 |
| Operation Hydra Case | $46.91 | $18,042 | $12,525 | $41,515 | $82,984 |
| eSports 2013 Case | $70.29 | $27,035 | $18,767 | $62,207 | $124,343 |
| Operation Bravo Case | $88.93 | $34,204 | $23,744 | $78,703 | $157,317 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $179.77 | $69,142 | $47,999 | $159,096 | $318,013 |
Download the data: knife-cost.csv (CC BY 4.0).
Simulation check
To check the formulas, we ran 100,000 simulated players through the same opening engine as the case simulator, each opening a weapon case until the first knife or gloves (pseudo-random generator seeded with 45, so the run is reproducible). Simulation results: 50th percentile 266 openings, 90th 882, 99th 1,762, average 383.3. The exact values are 267, 885, 1,769 and 384.6: the simulation lands within 0.4% of each. The page reports the exact values; the simulation only confirms them.
Methodology
The number of openings N until the first knife or gloves follows a geometric distribution with p = 0.0026, the rare special rate Valve disclosed for weapon cases in 2017 (see the methodology and sources pages). The chance of no knife after n openings is (1 − p)n, so the q-th percentile is the smallest n with 1 − (1 − p)n ≥ q, that is ⌈ln(1 − q) / ln(1 − p)⌉. The average is 1 / p ≈ 384.6 openings. The count includes the opening that drops the knife.
The cost is N times the price of one opening: the case's Steam Community Market 7-day median price plus a $2.49 key, read from the daily price job of September 30, 2026. It is the money spent, not the net loss: the other skins you unbox along the way have resale value, which the best cases ranking measures as the return per dollar. Case prices move every day and a long session would itself move them; the figures assume a constant price. Knife and glove values are not part of this calculation: what you unbox may be worth far less than you spent.
How to cite
Source: cs2cases.cc, "How Much Does a CS2 Knife Really Cost?", https://cs2cases.cc/knife-cost, published October 1, 2026, case prices as of September 30, 2026. Data under CC BY 4.0. Browse the knives and gloves they lead to, or open cases for free in the simulator before spending anything.