CS2 Case Opening Statistics
Data up to · Aggregated hourly · how to read these numbers
These statistics count the simulated openings made on cs2cases.cc, drawn by our server with the published odds. They are not openings of real cases by CS2 players, and they say nothing about Valve's own servers. What they show is whether the simulator behaves as its odds say it should. All records so far are unsegmented: manual, fast and automatic openings are counted together.
Openings by container type
157,296 simulated openings in total. Types are never mixed below: a souvenir package and a weapon case have different odds and prices, so a combined rate or return would mean nothing.
| Container type | Simulated openings |
|---|---|
| Weapon Case | 125,731 |
| Terminal | 18,988 |
| Souvenir Package | 11,906 |
| Sticker Capsule | 219 |
| Music Kit Box | 198 |
| Pin Capsule | 138 |
| Container | 113 |
| Autograph Capsule | 3 |
Weapon cases: observed vs theoretical
Theoretical rates are the odds Valve published for weapon cases. A rate is shown only when 125,731 openings are enough to expect at least 10 items of that tier, and a knife or glove rate only from 37,000 openings.
| Tier | Theoretical | Observed | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 79.93% (100,493) | 79.70% – 80.15% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 15.96% (20,066) | 15.76% – 16.16% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3.22% (4,050) | 3.12% – 3.32% |
| Covert | 0.640% | 0.648% (815) | 0.605% – 0.694% |
| Knife / gloves | 0.260% | 0.244% (307) | 0.218% – 0.273% |
Goodness of fit for September 2026 (4,909 openings): χ² = 7.26 with 4 degrees of freedom, 5% critical value 9.488. The draws are consistent with the theoretical odds.
Souvenir packages: observed vs theoretical
Theoretical rates are our estimate for souvenir packages (each tier five times rarer than the one below); Valve publishes no official odds for them. A rate is shown only when 11,906 openings are enough to expect at least 10 items of that tier, and a knife or glove rate only from 37,000 openings.
| Tier | Theoretical | Observed | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | 80.03% | 80.56% (9,591) | 79.84% – 81.26% |
| Industrial Grade | 15.98% | 15.49% (1,844) | 14.85% – 16.15% |
| Mil-Spec | 3.20% | 3.26% (388) | 2.95% – 3.59% |
| Restricted | 0.640% | 0.563% (67) | 0.443% – 0.714% |
| Classified | 0.128% | 0.126% (15) | 0.076% – 0.208% |
| Covert | 0.0256% | Not shown: needs 39,063 openings | |
Goodness of fit for September 2026 (151 openings): χ² = 0.36 with 2 degrees of freedom, 5% critical value 5.991. The draws are consistent with the theoretical odds.
StatTrak rate
Out of 125,424 simulated weapon case skins (knives and gloves excluded), 12,741 came out StatTrak: 10.16%, 95% interval 9.99% – 10.33%. The theoretical rate is 10% for skins that exist in StatTrak; the few that do not pull the observed rate slightly below it.
Float values
Distribution of the 156,738 float values drawn so far. Each skin draws its float uniformly within its own range, so the overall shape depends on which skins were opened: many skins stop at 0.80 or start above 0.00.
| Float range | Drops | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 0.00–0.05 | 12,927 | 8.25% |
| 0.05–0.10 | 13,776 | 8.79% |
| 0.10–0.15 | 16,040 | 10.23% |
| 0.15–0.20 | 13,688 | 8.73% |
| 0.20–0.25 | 11,761 | 7.50% |
| 0.25–0.30 | 9,151 | 5.84% |
| 0.30–0.35 | 8,183 | 5.22% |
| 0.35–0.40 | 8,101 | 5.17% |
| 0.40–0.45 | 7,674 | 4.90% |
| 0.45–0.50 | 7,478 | 4.77% |
| 0.50–0.55 | 6,759 | 4.31% |
| 0.55–0.60 | 6,422 | 4.10% |
| 0.60–0.65 | 6,068 | 3.87% |
| 0.65–0.70 | 5,869 | 3.74% |
| 0.70–0.75 | 5,258 | 3.35% |
| 0.75–0.80 | 4,994 | 3.19% |
| 0.80–0.85 | 3,333 | 2.13% |
| 0.85–0.90 | 3,383 | 2.16% |
| 0.90–0.95 | 2,927 | 1.87% |
| 0.95–1.00 | 2,946 | 1.88% |
Top 10 simulated drops
Most valuable simulated drops, priced at the Steam Market value on the day they were opened. Weapon cases and souvenir packages are ranked separately.
| # | Item | Price at opening | Container | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1874.30 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 2 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1831.83 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 3 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1820.56 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 4 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1820.56 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 5 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1820.56 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 6 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1819.69 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 7 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1819.69 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 8 | ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono | $1800.00 | Glove Case | |
| 9 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1764.74 | Dreams & Nightmares Case | |
| 10 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler | $1764.74 | Dreams & Nightmares Case |
| # | Item | Price at opening | Container | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $733.70 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 2 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $581.45 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 3 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $581.45 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 4 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $581.45 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 5 | CZ75-Auto | Chalice | $532.92 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 6 | CZ75-Auto | Chalice | $531.62 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 7 | CZ75-Auto | Chalice | $531.62 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 8 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $523.28 | MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 9 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $480.00 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package | |
| 10 | Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon | $480.00 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package |
Download the data
Monthly aggregates (container type, tier, openings, StatTrak), free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link to cs2cases.cc:
- openings-2026-09.csv (September 2026)
- openings-2026-08.csv (August 2026)
- openings-2026-07.csv (July 2026)
- openings-2026-06.csv (June 2026)
- openings-2026-05.csv (May 2026)
- openings-2026-04.csv (April 2026)
Want to add to the sample? Open a weapon case or check which case loses the least in the best cases ranking.