Best CS2 Cases to Open, Ranked by Expected Value

Prices as of September 30, 2026 · Steam Community Market 7-day median · how it's calculated

On September 30, 2026, the 42 CS2 weapon cases we can price return between 22 cents and 58 cents of items for every dollar spent on the case and its key. The best one to open is the CS:GO Weapon Case 2, with an expected value of $21.78 for a $37.65 opening. The median case gives back 42 cents per dollar, and 8 of 42 give back less than 35 cents. In other words: opening cases loses money on average, and this table shows how much.

42 CS2 weapon cases ranked by return per dollar, prices as of September 30, 2026. Select a column header to sort.
#						Verdict
1	CS:GO Weapon Case 2	$37.65	$21.78	$0.58	$62.02	Moderate loss
2	eSports 2013 Winter Case	$28.34	$14.79	$0.52	$62.02	Moderate loss
3	Prisma Case	$4.68	$2.43	$0.52	$58.76	Moderate loss
4	Gamma Case	$7.15	$3.70	$0.52	$72.84	Moderate loss
5	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$8.22	$4.16	$0.51	$62.02	Moderate loss
6	Chroma 3 Case	$7.41	$3.74	$0.50	$72.12	Moderate loss
7	Snakebite Case	$3.21	$1.61	$0.50	$62.55	Moderate loss
8	Gamma 2 Case	$7.02	$3.46	$0.49	$72.84	Moderate loss
9	Chroma 2 Case	$8.03	$3.86	$0.48	$72.12	Moderate loss
10	Prisma 2 Case	$4.56	$2.14	$0.47	$58.76	Moderate loss
11	Chroma Case	$9.58	$4.47	$0.47	$72.12	Moderate loss
12	Operation Wildfire Case	$7.58	$3.50	$0.46	$69.86	Moderate loss
13	Falchion Case	$4.94	$2.25	$0.46	$79.85	Moderate loss
14	Revolver Case	$6.62	$3.02	$0.46	$62.02	Moderate loss
15	Dreams & Nightmares Case	$4.34	$1.91	$0.44	$53.36	Moderate loss
16	Fever Case	$3.38	$1.49	$0.44	$63.32	Moderate loss
17	Shadow Case	$5.07	$2.21	$0.44	$52.78	Moderate loss
18	Spectrum Case	$8.00	$3.47	$0.43	$59.70	Moderate loss
19	Spectrum 2 Case	$6.77	$2.93	$0.43	$59.70	Moderate loss
20	Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	$10.39	$4.44	$0.43	$62.02	Moderate loss
21	Horizon Case	$5.06	$2.13	$0.42	$20.67	Moderate loss
22	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$14.17	$5.89	$0.42	$596.56	Moderate loss
23	CS20 Case	$4.13	$1.70	$0.41	$94.74	Moderate loss
24	Recoil Case	$2.98	$1.21	$0.41	$62.55	Moderate loss
25	Winter Offensive Weapon Case	$17.39	$7.05	$0.41	$62.02	Moderate loss
26	Operation Hydra Case	$46.91	$19.00	$0.41	$329.51	Moderate loss
27	Glove Case	$21.89	$8.72	$0.40	$329.51	Moderate loss
28	Gallery Case	$3.74	$1.47	$0.39	$56.86	Moderate loss
29	CS:GO Weapon Case 3	$20.95	$8.14	$0.39	$62.02	Moderate loss
30	Operation Broken Fang Case	$12.15	$4.59	$0.38	$62.55	Moderate loss
31	Danger Zone Case	$4.46	$1.68	$0.38	$20.67	Moderate loss
32	Revolution Case	$2.88	$1.08	$0.38	$44.89	Moderate loss
33	Huntsman Weapon Case	$14.89	$5.39	$0.36	$58.96	Moderate loss
34	Clutch Case	$3.48	$1.24	$0.36	$44.89	Moderate loss
35	Kilowatt Case	$2.74	$0.95	$0.35	$56.86	Simulate, don’t buy
36	eSports 2014 Summer Case	$22.58	$7.75	$0.34	$62.02	Simulate, don’t buy
37	Fracture Case	$3.27	$1.10	$0.34	$57.29	Simulate, don’t buy
38	Shattered Web Case	$10.47	$3.24	$0.31	$57.29	Simulate, don’t buy
39	CS:GO Weapon Case	$179.77	$49.46	$0.28	$62.02	Simulate, don’t buy
40	Operation Riptide Case	$16.64	$4.55	$0.27	$53.36	Simulate, don’t buy
41	Operation Bravo Case	$88.93	$22.58	$0.25	$62.02	Simulate, don’t buy
42	eSports 2013 Case	$70.29	$15.44	$0.22	$62.02	Simulate, don’t buy

Download the data: best-cases.csv (CC BY 4.0).

How to read this ranking

Cost is what one opening costs on Steam: the case price plus a key at $2.49. Expected value is the average Steam price of what comes out, weighted by the chance of each item. Return per $1 divides the second by the first: 0.40 means that each dollar spent comes back as 40 cents of items on average. A higher number is a smaller loss, not a profit. The cheapest knife or gloves column shows the least expensive gold item in the case, useful to see what a "win" is actually worth.

The verdict follows fixed thresholds. Below 35 cents per dollar, the case is best enjoyed in the simulator. Between 35 and 70 cents, the loss is moderate. Above 70 cents, the case is among the least bad options. A value above one dollar is almost always a stale or thinly traded price and should be checked before trusting it.

Why most cases lose money

Every weapon case uses the same odds published by Valve: about 80% of openings give a Mil-Spec skin that usually sells for little, and knives or gloves drop only 0.26% of the time, roughly 1 in 385 openings. The key alone costs $2.49 and is never resold, so a case whose items are cheap starts with a large deficit. Cases that rank well usually combine a very cheap case price with a pool of knives or gloves that keeps a high market price, which lifts the average even though you will rarely see one.

The expected value is also an average over many openings. Over ten or twenty openings, the result you get is dominated by luck: most sessions end well below the expected value, and a few end far above it thanks to a single rare drop. That is why a free case opening simulator is the safest way to see how a case really behaves before spending money on it.

Limits of these numbers

Each skin is priced at a single wear (Field-Tested when it exists) rather than weighted by the chance of each wear, StatTrak and Doppler phase premiums are ignored, and items with no market price are left out. Steam prices also include the market fee paid by the buyer, so selling what you unbox returns less than the price shown. These choices keep the ranking comparable from one case to the next, but the absolute figures are approximations. The full formula is on the methodology page and the price source on the sources page.

How often the ranking changes

Steam prices are collected once a day and this page is rebuilt at most every hour, so the order moves as case and knife prices move. New cases enter the ranking as soon as they have a market price. Souvenir packages and sticker capsules are not included: they need no key and their odds are estimates, so they are not directly comparable. You can browse them on the souvenir packages and sticker capsules pages, and compare what the simulator actually produced on the statistics page.