CS2 Case Odds: Drop Rates for Every Rarity, Knife and Case
Updated · Steam Community Market prices as of · methodology
Every CS2 weapon case uses the same five odds. A knife or a pair of gloves drops 0.26% of the time, about 1 in 385 openings; a Covert skin 0.64%; and four openings in five give a Mil-Spec skin. These are the rates Valve published in 2017, and the simulator on this site uses them for all 42 weapon cases it hosts. This guide explains what the numbers mean in practice, how long a knife really takes, and how the same tier odds turn into very different odds for a given skin from one case to the next.
Official CS2 case drop rates
| Rarity | Chance per opening | One in |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 1.3 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 6.3 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.2% | 31 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 156 |
| Knife or gloves (gold) | 0.26% | 385 |
The five rates add up to 100%. Each tier is about five times rarer than the one before it, except gold, which is roughly 2.5 times rarer than Covert. Any skin that exists in StatTrak™ has a further 10% chance of being StatTrak™, rolled independently of the rarity. That puts a StatTrak™ knife at 0.026% per opening, or 1 in 3,846. Gloves have no StatTrak™ version, so in a glove case every gold drop is a plain pair.
What 1 in 385 really means
"1 in 385" is an average, not a countdown. Each opening is independent: the case does not remember that you have opened 300 without a knife. The table below gives the chance of at least one knife or pair of gloves after a number of openings, and what those openings cost at the median case price of $7.50 including the $2.49 key.
| Openings | Chance of at least one gold | Cost at the median case |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.6% | $75 |
| 50 | 12.2% | $375 |
| 100 | 22.9% | $750 |
| 250 | 47.8% | $1,874 |
| 500 | 72.8% | $3,748 |
| 1,000 | 92.6% | $7,495 |
| 2,000 | 99.5% | $14,990 |
Half of all players get their first gold item within 267 openings, but one in ten still has none after 885. The spread is why a run of a few dozen openings tells you almost nothing about a case: most short sessions end with nothing better than a Classified skin, and a few end with a knife. The opening statistics page shows how the simulator's own results compare with these rates, with confidence intervals.
Same tiers, different odds per skin
Inside a tier, every skin has the same chance: the tier rate divided by the number of skins in it. That is where cases differ. 37 of the 42 cases have 2 Covert skins, so each one drops 0.32% of the time; 5 cases have 1, at 0.64% each. The gold rate is split the same way: the Huntsman Weapon Case shares it between 13 knife or glove finishes (1 in 5,000 for a given finish), while the CS:GO Weapon Case spreads it over 65 (1 in 25,000). Doppler and Gamma Doppler phases split their finish's share again, which is why a Ruby or a Sapphire is far rarer than the finish itself. Each knife type and glove type page lists the cases that drop it with the exact chance.
Odds in every CS2 weapon case
The table lists all 42 weapon cases on the site, oldest first, with the chance of one given Covert skin, the number of gold finishes and the chance of one given finish. The last column is the average spend to get any knife or gloves: the cost of one opening divided by 0.26%. Open a case to see the odds and Steam price of every skin it contains.
| Case | Covert skins | Chance per Covert | Gold finishes | Chance per finish | Cost with key | Average cost per gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case | 1 | 0.64% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $179.77 | $69,142.31 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 1 | 0.64% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $37.65 | $14,480.77 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 1 | 0.64% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $20.95 | $8,057.69 |
| Operation Bravo Case | 2 | 0.32% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $88.93 | $34,203.85 |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 2 | 0.32% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $17.39 | $6,688.46 |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 2 | 0.32% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $8.22 | $3,161.54 |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $14.89 | $5,726.92 |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $14.17 | $5,450.00 |
| eSports 2013 Case | 1 | 0.64% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $70.29 | $27,034.62 |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 1 | 0.64% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $28.34 | $10,900.00 |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | 2 | 0.32% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $22.58 | $8,684.62 |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 2 | 0.32% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $10.39 | $3,996.15 |
| Chroma Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $9.58 | $3,684.62 |
| Chroma 2 Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $8.03 | $3,088.46 |
| Falchion Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $4.94 | $1,900.00 |
| Shadow Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $5.07 | $1,950.00 |
| Revolver Case | 2 | 0.32% | 65 | 1 in 25,000 | $6.62 | $2,546.15 |
| Operation Wildfire Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $7.58 | $2,915.38 |
| Chroma 3 Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $7.41 | $2,850.00 |
| Gamma Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $7.15 | $2,750.00 |
| Gamma 2 Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $7.02 | $2,700.00 |
| Glove Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $21.89 | $8,419.23 |
| Spectrum Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $8.00 | $3,076.92 |
| Operation Hydra Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $46.91 | $18,042.31 |
| Spectrum 2 Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $6.77 | $2,603.85 |
| Clutch Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $3.48 | $1,338.46 |
| Horizon Case | 2 | 0.32% | 52 | 1 in 20,000 | $5.06 | $1,946.15 |
| Danger Zone Case | 2 | 0.32% | 52 | 1 in 20,000 | $4.46 | $1,715.38 |
| Prisma Case | 2 | 0.32% | 28 | 1 in 10,769 | $4.68 | $1,800.00 |
| Shattered Web Case | 2 | 0.32% | 52 | 1 in 20,000 | $10.47 | $4,026.92 |
| CS20 Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $4.13 | $1,588.46 |
| Prisma 2 Case | 2 | 0.32% | 28 | 1 in 10,769 | $4.56 | $1,753.85 |
| Fracture Case | 2 | 0.32% | 52 | 1 in 20,000 | $3.27 | $1,257.69 |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $12.15 | $4,673.08 |
| Snakebite Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $3.21 | $1,234.62 |
| Operation Riptide Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $16.64 | $6,400.00 |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | 2 | 0.32% | 30 | 1 in 11,538 | $4.34 | $1,669.23 |
| Recoil Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $2.98 | $1,146.15 |
| Revolution Case | 2 | 0.32% | 24 | 1 in 9,231 | $2.88 | $1,107.69 |
| Kilowatt Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $2.74 | $1,053.85 |
| Gallery Case | 2 | 0.32% | 13 | 1 in 5,000 | $3.74 | $1,438.46 |
| Fever Case | 2 | 0.32% | 28 | 1 in 10,769 | $3.38 | $1,300.00 |
Souvenir packages and capsules
Valve's published table covers weapon cases only. Souvenir packages have six tiers, no knives and no StatTrak™; sticker, autograph, patch and pin capsules have their own rarities. For those, the simulator applies the same 5× rule between tiers and labels the result as an estimate. The souvenir package odds and sticker capsule odds guides go through them.
Odds are not value
Knowing the odds does not tell you whether a case is worth opening: that depends on what the skins sell for. Multiplying each chance by the Steam price of the skin gives the expected value of one opening. Across the 42 weapon cases that can be priced today, the median case returns 42 cents per dollar spent, so opening real cases loses money on average. The best cases to open ranking sorts all of them by return per dollar, and the methodology explains the formula and its limits. If you want to feel how rare a knife is without paying for it, the free case simulator uses exactly these odds.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?
- 0.26% per weapon case opening, or 1 in 385. The figure covers knives and gloves together and is the same in every weapon case: Valve published the rarity odds in 2017 and they apply to every case.
- How many cases do you need to open to get a knife?
- On average 385, but luck spreads it widely: after 267 openings you have a 50% chance of at least one knife or pair of gloves, after 100 only 22.9%, and even after 1,000 there is still a 7.4% chance of having none.
- What is the chance of a StatTrak knife?
- 0.026% per opening, or 1 in 3,846: the 0.26% gold rate times the 10% StatTrak chance. Gloves never come in StatTrak.
- Are the odds the same in every CS2 case?
- The tier odds are. What changes is how many skins share each tier: 37 cases split the Covert rate between 2, 5 cases split the Covert rate between 1, and the gold rate is split between 13 and 65 knife or glove finishes depending on the case.
- What are the odds of a Covert skin?
- 0.64% for the Covert tier as a whole, about 1 in 156. A specific Covert skin is rarer: in a case with two Coverts, each one drops 0.32% of the time.
- Is opening CS2 cases worth it?
- On average, no. The median weapon case returns 42 cents of items per dollar spent on the case and its key. The best cases ranking lists every case by expected value, and the simulator lets you try any case for free.