CS2 Sticker Capsule Odds and Prices
Updated · Steam Community Market prices as of · methodology
The simulator hosts 226 sticker and autograph capsules: 88 sticker capsules and 138 autograph capsules, from the first community collections to the latest Majors. Valve has never published their odds. This guide explains how the simulator estimates them, what the estimate gives for a paper, glitter, holo, foil or gold sticker depending on the capsule, and which capsules return the most at Steam Community Market prices. Every rate here is an estimate, and we say so wherever it appears.
Sticker rarities
Stickers use their own rarity names. In recent Major capsules, High Grade (blue) is the paper sticker, Remarkable (purple) the glitter version, Exotic (pink) the holo and Extraordinary (gold) the gold sticker. Older capsules map them differently: foil stickers were Exotic, and some early capsules had only one or two rarities. A capsule can only drop the tiers it contains, so the odds depend on its layout.
Estimated odds by capsule layout
Weapon case odds follow a simple pattern: each tier is about five times rarer than the one below. The simulator applies that rule to every capsule over the tiers it actually has, then scales the rates so they add up to 100%. Capsules with the same layout therefore share the same estimated odds:
| Tiers in the capsule | Capsules | Estimated chance per tier |
|---|---|---|
| High Grade | 84 | High Grade 100% |
| High Grade / Remarkable / Exotic / Extraordinary | 58 | High Grade 80.13%, Remarkable 16.03%, Exotic 3.205%, Extraordinary 0.641% |
| Remarkable / Exotic | 25 | Remarkable 83.33%, Exotic 16.67% |
| High Grade / Remarkable / Exotic | 22 | High Grade 80.65%, Remarkable 16.13%, Exotic 3.226% |
| High Grade / Remarkable / Extraordinary | 18 | High Grade 80.65%, Remarkable 16.13%, Extraordinary 3.226% |
| Exotic | 16 | Exotic 100% |
| High Grade / Remarkable | 2 | High Grade 83.33%, Remarkable 16.67% |
| High Grade / Exotic | 1 | High Grade 83.33%, Exotic 16.67% |
In a four-tier Major capsule the gold tier comes out about 0.641% of the time, 1 in 156, and that chance is shared by every gold sticker of the capsule. The Shanghai 2024 Legends Sticker Capsule has 9 of them, so one given gold sticker is about 1 in 1,404. 100 capsules have a single tier: every sticker is equally likely, and the only question is which one you get. The methodology describes the rule and its limits.
Which capsules return the most
The expected value of a capsule is the average Steam price of what it drops, weighted by the estimated odds. Over the 126 capsules with several tiers that can be priced, the median returns 63¢ per dollar. Here are the capsules with the highest and lowest estimated return today:
| Capsule | Price | Expected value | Return per $1 | Rarest tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker Capsule | $0.89 | $1.46 | 164¢ | Exotic: 3.226% shared by 2 |
| Team Roles Capsule | $1.03 | $1.25 | 121¢ | Exotic: 16.67% shared by 1 |
| ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo/Foil) | $460.27 | $500.54 | 109¢ | Exotic: 16.67% shared by 9 |
| DreamHack 2014 Legends (Holo/Foil) | $303.61 | $329.99 | 109¢ | Exotic: 16.67% shared by 7 |
| The Boardroom Sticker Capsule | $0.94 | $0.95 | 101¢ | Exotic: 3.226% shared by 4 |
| Krakow 2017 Legends (Holo/Foil) | $21.49 | $21.40 | 100¢ | Exotic: 16.67% shared by 9 |
| Cologne 2016 Legends (Holo/Foil) | $35.74 | $35.01 | 98¢ | Exotic: 16.67% shared by 9 |
| MLG Columbus 2016 Challengers (Holo/Foil) | $54.88 | $53.48 | 97¢ | Exotic: 16.67% shared by 9 |
| Rio 2022 Champions Autograph Capsule | $0.48 | $0.09 | 19¢ | Extraordinary: 0.641% shared by 5 |
| Boston 2018 Legends Autograph Capsule | $83.34 | $8.72 | 10¢ | Extraordinary: 3.226% shared by 40 |
| Boston 2018 Minor Challengers Autograph Capsule | $346.17 | $12.93 | 4¢ | Extraordinary: 3.226% shared by 40 |
A return above one dollar usually points to a stale or thinly traded price, either of the capsule or of its rarest sticker, and should not be read as a profit. Capsules from finished Majors are no longer sold by Valve, so their supply only shrinks as people open them; that is why some trade far above the value of their contents while others sit at a few cents. Capsule prices here range from $0.12 to $460.27 (ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo/Foil)).
The most valuable stickers in hosted capsules
| Sticker | Price | Capsule |
|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 | $1,833.07 | ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo/Foil) |
| Sticker | apEX (Gold) | Krakow 2017 | $1,611.07 | Krakow 2017 Challengers Autograph Capsule |
| Sticker | DickStacy (Gold) | Katowice 2019 | $1,071.29 | Katowice 2019 Minor Challengers Autograph Capsule |
| Sticker | FalleN (Gold) | Krakow 2017 | $1,018.12 | Krakow 2017 Legends Autograph Capsule |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Cologne 2014 | $934.62 | ESL One Cologne 2014 Legends |
Open capsules for free
Every capsule in these tables can be opened in the simulator from the sticker capsules page, with the estimated odds and real Steam prices, without spending anything. For the same events' skins, see the souvenir package odds; for weapon cases, the official case odds and the best cases ranking.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds of a gold sticker in a capsule?
- Valve does not publish capsule odds. With the 5× rule used here, a four-tier capsule (High Grade, Remarkable, Exotic, Extraordinary) gives the gold tier about 0.641% (1 in 156), shared between all its gold stickers. This is an estimate.
- Are sticker capsule odds official?
- No. Valve has published odds for weapon cases only. Every capsule rate on this site is an estimate from the 5× rule and is labelled as such.
- Why do some capsules show a 100% chance?
- 100 capsules hold stickers of a single rarity, so every sticker in them is equally likely and the tier is certain. Many autograph and community capsules work this way.
- Are sticker capsules worth opening?
- On average, no: the median capsule with several tiers returns 63¢ per dollar at Steam Market prices and estimated odds. Some old Major capsules sell for far more than their contents are worth.
- Do capsules need a key?
- No. Sticker and autograph capsules open without a key; the cost of an opening is the capsule price.
- What is the most expensive sticker you can get from a capsule here?
- Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015, at about $1,833.07 on the Steam Community Market, from the ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo/Foil).