CS2 Souvenir Package Odds and Value
Updated · Steam Community Market prices as of · methodology
Souvenir packages are the drops of CS2 Majors and other tournaments: each one matches a map of a given event, and every skin inside carries stickers of the event and of the teams that played that match. The simulator hosts 157 of them. Unlike weapon cases, they need no key, contain no knife or gloves and never drop StatTrak™. They also have six rarity tiers instead of five, and Valve has never published their odds, so every rate below is an estimate. This guide gives those rates, the packages that can drop a Covert skin, and what an opening is worth at today's souvenir prices.
Souvenir package odds (estimated)
| Rarity | Chance per opening | One in |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | 80.03% | 1.2 |
| Industrial Grade | 15.98% | 6.3 |
| Mil-Spec | 3.2% | 31 |
| Restricted | 0.64% | 156 |
| Classified | 0.128% | 781 |
| Covert | 0.0256% | 3,906 |
The table applies the rule visible in Valve's weapon case odds, each tier five times rarer than the one below, to the six souvenir tiers. A package that lacks a tier, for example one without Consumer Grade skins, has its other tiers scaled up so they still add to 100%: 46 packages use 6 tiers, 59 packages use 5 tiers, 32 packages use 4 tiers, 20 packages use 3 tiers. The rates are a model, not an official figure, and the methodology says so for every container it applies to.
Packages that can drop a Covert skin
The Covert tier is where souvenir value concentrates. At 0.0256% per opening, a Covert is a 1 in 3,906 event, more than ten times rarer than a knife from a weapon case. Only 52 of the 157 packages have one:
The most valuable item in any hosted package is the Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque, at $1,658.75 on the Steam Community Market; it can drop from 8 of the packages above. Packages from old Majors are expensive largely because they are the only source of those souvenir skins and no new copies are being dropped; the package price already includes that scarcity.
Are souvenir packages worth it?
The expected value of a package is the average souvenir price of what it drops, weighted by the estimated odds. Across the 157 packages that can be priced, the median returns 8¢ per dollar spent. Because there is no key, cheap packages lose less than cheap weapon cases, but most of the value still sits in one or two skins you are unlikely to see. The best and worst returns today:
| Package | Price | Expected value | Return per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package | $3.44 | $1.52 | 44¢ |
| Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package | $2.88 | $1.16 | 40¢ |
| Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package | $3.97 | $1.52 | 38¢ |
| Copenhagen 2024 Overpass Souvenir Package | $3.17 | $1.16 | 37¢ |
| Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package | $4.03 | $1.37 | 34¢ |
| Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package | $4.71 | $1.52 | 32¢ |
| London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package | $23.57 | $7.13 | 30¢ |
| Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package | $4.58 | $1.37 | 30¢ |
| DreamHack 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package | $850.01 | $3.78 | 0¢ |
| EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package | $1,028.98 | $3.91 | 0¢ |
| ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package | $450.01 | $1.18 | 0¢ |
Steam prices also include the buyer's fee, so selling what you unbox brings back less than the figure shown. Package prices range from $2.66 (Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package) to $1,809.78 (ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package).
Souvenir packages vs weapon cases
Weapon cases use official odds, cost a $2.49 key on top of the case and hide a knife or gloves behind a 1 in 385 roll. Souvenir packages use estimated odds, need no key and have no gold tier; their jackpot is a souvenir Covert, many times rarer. To compare the two on expected value, see the best weapon cases ranking and the case odds guide. Every package can be opened for free on the souvenir packages page: the simulator shows the price of every drop, with no money involved. Sticker capsules from the same events have their own odds guide.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds of a souvenir package?
- Valve does not publish them. Using the 5× rule of weapon cases over six tiers gives Consumer 80.03%, Industrial 15.98%, Mil-Spec 3.2%, Restricted 0.64%, Classified 0.128% and Covert 0.0256%. These are estimates.
- What are the odds of a Dragon Lore from a souvenir package?
- About 0.0256% per opening (1 in 3,906) in a package whose only Covert is the AWP | Dragon Lore, which is the case for 8 packages on this site. The rate is an estimate.
- Can you get a knife from a souvenir package?
- No. Souvenir packages have no gold tier: no knives, no gloves. They also never drop StatTrak™ skins.
- Do souvenir packages need a key?
- No. A souvenir package opens without a key, so its cost is only the package price.
- Are souvenir packages worth opening?
- Usually not: the median package returns 8¢ of souvenir items per dollar at Steam Market prices, with estimated odds.
- How many souvenir packages are there?
- 157 souvenir packages with a market price are hosted here, from past Majors and other events; 52 of them can drop a Covert skin.